Post Debate: Bernie up, Warren Down

The media noticed Biden's drop but not Warren's

You should probably go ahead and SUBSCRIBE rn.

CNN is out with a new poll of New Hampshire and it’s got some big news for Bernie Sanders. The Vermont Senator has jumped into FIRST in the key primary state. Meanwhile Biden dropped like a stone.  I wonder what part of his “suck it up and vote for Joe” pitch is falling flat?

Poor CNN doesn’t seem to be taking the news well. As Ryan Grim pointed out, they wrote 5 different stories about that poll and none of them bothered to mention that Sanders is in 1st! My absolute favorite is the one they headlined: “Pete Buttigieg in fourth, but a strong fourth.” I know you think I’m making that up but I didn’t. They just really are that into “Pistol Pete.”

There’s another dynamic that seems to be developing post debate however. Sanders has picked up steam (Bernie’s Back!), while at the same time, Warren’s momentum seems to have decidedly lagged. It’s a little too early to call it a true trend but even the consistently Bernie-skeptical Nate Silver is noting his upsurge.

Sanders added a couple of points in a recent Morning Consult National Poll where he inched ahead of Warren in the early primary states. His favorability numbers top the field (which runs quite counter to the MSM narrative that Bernie is “divisive”). And overall since the debate he’s seen the largest upswing of any of the candidates in the RCP polling average rising from 15.6% on debate day to 17.7%. At the same time, Biden and Warren have both fallen. Biden’s drop has been much discussed in the media, Warren’s post-debate drop has been almost identical (down 1.7 points from 23.4 to 21.7) but not really noted at all. Even more notable is the drop she’s experienced from her recent high of 26.8% when she briefly overtook Joe Biden to claim RCP national frontrunner status.

If I had to guess what’s going on, I’d say that the mini surge of Mayor Pete has cost Warren some of her support with affluent white liberals. Prior to this debate, Warren had been rapidly consolidating the support of educated white liberals. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising if Pete’s media-fueled rise has eaten into Warren’s support. In any case, Warren’s slow and steady rise has for now stopped and even reversed while Bernie’s seems to have jumped into gear.

As Michael Moore said to me and Saagar last week, Bernie does seem to have a little extra mojo post heart attack. Just take a look at him making the case for change through working class pressure in an interview today with CNBC’s John Harwood.

Perhaps all those pundits who said he was finished and should drop out after his health scare should apologize. LOL that will never happen. They will just keep being wrong and getting raises!